Final thoughts on Winneshiek County's caucuses

264 turned out for the Precinct 3 Democratic Party Caucus at the Decorah High School Auditorium, with 152 Sanders supporters and 112 Clinton supporters (decorahnews.com photo by Bob Felde)

(by decorahnews.com's Paul Scott)

If there's one thing I have learned in more than 40 years of news reporting, it's that the headline does not always highlight the most significant development.

This year's Iowa Caucuses provide examples of that on both the Republican and Democratic sides.

On the Republican side, the headline, of course, was that Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz finished in first place.  I'm happy to say this was the outcome I predicted on January 9th (http://www.decorahnews.com/news-stories/2016/01/12591.html)

But that same analysis I wrote then added that "doesn't mean he'll win the Republican Party presidential nomination or that he would win in November."  At this point, despite Cruz's victory in Iowa, the odds are against either event happening.  That's because Iowa has now for the third time in a row elected a candidate who was favored by evangelicals--a large population in western Iowa, but not as large a segment in most of the rest of the country.

So I'd say the most significant development on the Republican side was Marco Rubio's strong third place performance.  Rubio now will increasingly draw the support of the Republican establishment, especially after other candidates drop out of the race after New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, the headlines dealt with the tie between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.  But the real significant development was that 1,700 people caucused with the Democrats in Winneshiek County and 171,000 did statewide.  That wasn't a record, but it was a sign that Sanders is bringing out young people who haven't been involved in politics before.  Will that trend continue?  Stay tuned.