first on decorahnews.com: Even if the 32 uncancelled ballots are counted, the odds are slight it would change the results in Iowa House District 55

The recount of ballots cast on November 6th in Winneshiek County and in Clayton County will begin Tuesday.  At this point in the race for Iowa House District 55, Republican Michael Bergan leads Democrat Kayla Koether by seven votes.

Much of the attention paid to November 6th's election totals revolves around uncancelled mail-in ballots which were counted in Fayette County, but not in Winneshiek County.  Election officials said the counting of uncancelled ballots in Fayette County was a mistake and should not have been allowed--but could not be reversed once it happened.

The mistake in Fayette County led some to suggest election officials ought to count the 32 uncancelled mail-in ballots in Winneshiek County.  But a just-completed decorahnews.com analysis of those ballots in Winneshiek County suggests such a move would be highly unlikely to change the results of the November 6th election.

The names of the people who cast the disallowed mail-in ballots in Winneshiek County are available to the public.  decorahnews.com asked for and received the list of all 32 names.  Next we cross-checked those names with information about political party affiliation.  Eight of the disallowed ballots were cast by registered Democrats--and nine were cast by registered Republicans.

If those voters cast ballots along party lines--not a guarantee, but a good likelihood--the race between Bergan and Koether would then be eight votes apart in favor of Bergan, with 15 ballots remaining, cast by people who are neither registered Democrats nor registered Republicans.

In Winneshiek County, Koether won by 53 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Bergan, so if the 15 uncancelled ballots split the way other votes did in Winneshiek County, the results would be eight ballots for Koether and seven ballots for Bergan--not enough to change the results.  With an 8-vote margin, Koether would need for 12 of those 15 ballots to be for her in order to win the election. 

Only if 12 or more of the uncancelled mail-in ballots were cast for Koether would she win--and the odds against that, assuming a normal distribution curve, are better than 20-to-1.

Of course, Tuesday's recount won't include the uncancelled ballots.  Only the ballots certified by the Winneshiek and Clayton County Boards as meeting the Iowa election law qualifications will be recounted.  The recount could take as long as two days, with eight changed votes needed to swing the election in Koether's favor.