Paul Scott comment: Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Caucus

Family Leader president Bob Vander Plaats speaks at Mabe's as Congressman Steve King and former Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz look on

(analysis by decorahnews.com's Paul Scott)

Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Caucus on February 1st.  This is not an endorsement--this is a prediction. 

I base my prediction not just on the energy in the meeting room at Mabe's PIzza Friday night, but on the fact that Cruz wasn't alone when his campaign made a stop in Decorah.  Congressman Steve King, Family Leader president Bob Vander Plaats and former Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz were all part of the Cruz campaign bus--with all three of them introducing Cruz before Cruz's speech.

This is significant for several reasons.  First, Congressman King did not endorse any Republican candidate in 2012.  Secondly, conservative Republicans appear to have coalesced around Cruz--deserting the campaigns of other religious conservatives such as Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum.

These two developments are significant for a third reason--the fact that conservative Republicans are a significant block of people in Iowa--more so than in New Hampshire or other states.

So it's my guess that Ted Cruz will be the choice of February 1st caucus-goers in Iowa.  That doesn't mean he'll win the Republican Party presidential nomination or that he would win in November, but at the point he seems the clear choice of a lot of Iowa Republicans.